Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 July 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jul 22 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the last 24 hours. The visible solar disk is spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm conditions.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft observed a gradual increase in
the solar wind velocity starting around 22/0000Z. This was followed
by an increase in density, variations in the IMF Bz (-17/+14 nT),
and enhanced Bt (peaks to 17 nT) between 22/0000Z and 22/0800Z.
Current solar wind speeds are averaging around 470 km/s indicating
the influence of the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a slight chance for isolated
active levels, for the next two days (23-24 July). Mostly quiet
conditions are expected for day three (25 July) as the coronal hole
high speed stream begins to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 068 Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 068/068/069 90 Day Mean 22 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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