Viewing archive of Monday, 3 August 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Aug 03 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with one isolated active
period observed at middle latitudes between 03/0600 - 0900Z. An
extended period of southward IMF Bz (-5 to -6 nT) was observed
between 02/2000Z - 03/1000Z that contributed to the unsettled to
active conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one of the forecast period (04 August).
On days two and three (05 - 06 August), field conditions are
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled as a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream will become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 067 Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 010/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 005/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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