Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 August 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Aug 16 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected
and the visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels throughout the summary
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (17 August). An increase to
quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 2 (18 August) as a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) begins to disturb
the field. A further increase to unsettled to active levels (with a
slight chance for minor storm levels) is expected on day 3 (19
August) as the CH HSS persists.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 069 Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 005/005-007/007-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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