Viewing archive of Monday, 17 August 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Aug 17 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk remained void of spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (18
August) as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS)
begins to disturb the field. A further increase to unsettled to
active levels, with a slight chance for minor storm levels, is
expected on day 2 (19 August) as the CH HSS persists. Activity is
expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (20
August) as the CH HSS subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 068 Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 000/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 007/007-015/015-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä
Reykjavik
Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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