Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 November 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 12 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been very low for the past 24 hours.
Region 1030 (N23W92) was classified as an Axx-alpha group with one
spot. No flares were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low on day one (13 November) and very low to low for day two and day
three (14-15 November). On day two, old Region 1029 is expected to
rotate back on the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic filed has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for the next three days (13-15
November).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 073 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 073/074/075 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 001/001 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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