Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 December 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 31 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1039 (S28W21) grew
in both sunspot count and white light area coverage and produced
several low-level B-flares. This region remains a D-type sunspot
group with a beta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a slight chance of an isolated C-flare and
M-flare from Region 1039.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (01 - 03 January).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 080 Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 079/079/079 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 000/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 001/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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