Viewing archive of Monday, 4 January 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 04 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 1039 (S28W72) produced
one C-class flare during the forecast period. This region remains a
D-type sunspot group with a beta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a likely chance of a C-class flare from Region
1039.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (05 - 07 January).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 073 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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