Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 24 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. Region 1049 (S19W91)
produced an isolated B-class flare as it rotated out of view. New
Region 1051 (N17E66), a Cso/Beta group, also produced isolated
B-class flares during the period. LASCO C2 images indicated a halo
CME, first visible at 24/0354Z, with a plane of sky velocity of
approximately 380 km/sec. The CME was determined to be a backside
event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period with a slight chance for a C-class flare from
Region 1051.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
Unsettled levels were observed during 24/0300 - 0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (25 - 27
February).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 083 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 082/080/078 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK
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