Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 April 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 03 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1059 (S22W15) produced a long-duration B7 x-ray event at 0954Z which was associated with a halo CME. The CME plane-of-sky speed was estimated to be about 500 km/s. Regions 1059 and 1057 (N16W72) were generally unchanged during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (4-6 April). There is however, a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (4-5 April). An increase to quiet to unsettled with a chance for an active period is expected late on the third day (6 April) due to possible effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Apr 077
  Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr  078/080/080
  90 Day Mean        03 Apr 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Apr  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%30%
Minor storm01%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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