Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 April 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 06 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Todays flare activity consisted of a single B1 X-ray event at 0402Z from Region 1060 (N26E32). In addition a small, possibly earthward directed CME was observed in the Stereo coronagraph images and was associated with disk activity in the SOHO EIT images beginning at about 0113Z, just north of Region 1061 (N14W24). Region 1061 appears to be growing slowly.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low, but there is a chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 1061.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels for most of the day, with the exception of an interval of minor to major storm levels between 0000-0600Z. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed a slow trend of increasingly negative Bz consistent with continued influence of yesterdays CME-driven activity. Peak negative Bz values reached -8 nT at about 1250Z. Solar wind velocity gradually decreased during the past 24 hours and was about 550 km/s at the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be active for the first day (07 April) due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Activity levels are expected to be unsettled to active on the second day (08 April) due to persistence as well as possible effects from todays CME. Predominantly quiet levels are expected on the third day (09 April).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Apr 078
  Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr  082/085/085
  90 Day Mean        06 Apr 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  028/049
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Apr  025/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  015/020-012/015-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%05%
Minor storm20%10%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%25%05%
Minor storm25%15%01%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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