Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 April 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 08 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 1060 (N25E00) produced a B3 flare at 08/0325Z with an associated EIT wave and a earth directed full halo CME. SOHO C2 imagery observed a second CME at 08/1030Z located along a filament channel in the northeast quadrant of the disk. This CME is not expected to become geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance of a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. Observations from the ACE spacecraft show continued influence from the coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speeds have averaged 600 km/s with IMF Bz fluctuations ranging from -4/+4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (09 April). Days two and three (10-11 April) are expected to be predominately quiet, as the high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Apr 076
  Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        08 Apr 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  015/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Apr  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%01%01%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%01%01%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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