Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 April 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 17 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
remained spotless. A long duration B2.1 X-ray event was observed at
17/0557Z. The possible source region of this event was from an area
of surging on the east limb near N25 as observed in GOES-14 SXI
imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at predominately very low levels. A slight chance for C-class
activity exists as the new area of interest on the NE limb rotates
onto the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 April)
due to a geoeffective coronal hole wind stream and possible glancing
effects from the 13 April CME. Mostly quiet levels are expected to
return on days two and three (19 - 20 April).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Apr 074 Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 078/079/080 90 Day Mean 17 Apr 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr to 20 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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