Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 May 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 01 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was low. GOES-14 SXI imagery observed a C5.7/sf x-ray flare at 01/0139Z. The source of this event was located just beyond the east limb at N24. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with C-class flares likely including a slight chance of M-class activity, all due from the active area on the NE limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for day one (02 May). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels, are expected on day two (03 May). A further increase in activity to unsettled to active, with isolated minor storm periods, is expected on day three (04 May). Isolated major storm periods at high latitudes is also possible on day three. The expected increase in activity on 03 - 04 May is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 May 078
  Predicted   02 May-04 May  080/082/084
  90 Day Mean        01 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 May  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  005/005-010/012-018/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%20%30%
Minor storm01%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%20%35%
Minor storm01%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%15%

All times in UTC

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