Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 June 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 03 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1076 (S19W36) has grown in size and is magnetically classified as a beta group. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class events for the next three days (04-06 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels at mid latitudes with isolated storm periods from 0900Z-1500Z at high latitudes. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate a continuation of a high speed solar wind stream, with an increase in solar wind speed from 450 km/s to 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for isolated active periods for the next two days (04-05 June). Activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream on day one and the arrival of a CME observed on 31 May on day two. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected on day three (06 June).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jun 075
  Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun  075/074/074
  90 Day Mean        03 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jun  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Arkhangelsk, Vorkuta
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C8.08

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