Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 June 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 03 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1076 (S19W36) has grown in size and is magnetically
classified as a beta group. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class events for the
next three days (04-06 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels at mid
latitudes with isolated storm periods from 0900Z-1500Z at high
latitudes. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate a
continuation of a high speed solar wind stream, with an increase in
solar wind speed from 450 km/s to 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
isolated active periods for the next two days (04-05 June).
Activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream on day
one and the arrival of a CME observed on 31 May on day two.
Predominantly quiet conditions are expected on day three (06 June).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 075 Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 075/074/074 90 Day Mean 03 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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