Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 June 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 17 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 1082 (N28E33)
produced a B5/Sf x-ray event at 17/1023Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next 3 days (18-20 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with a few isolated
periods of active conditions at mid latitudes. Solar wind speeds
remain near 520 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for an isolated
period of active conditions on day 1 (18 June). Conditions are
forecast to be mostly quiet on days 2 and 3 (19-20 June).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 070 Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 013/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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