Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Friday, 25 June 2010

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jun 25 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1082 (N26W77) produced a B3 x-ray event at 25/1021Z. No other activity of note was observed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event on day one (26 June) as Region 1082 rotates around the limb.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a slight chance of isolated minor storm periods all three days of the forecast period (26 - 28 June). The increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       25 Jun 075
  Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun  076/077/078
  90 Day Mean        25 Jun 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jun  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  015/015-012/012-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	25%	20%	20%
Minor storm	15%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	30%	25%	20%
Minor storm	25%	15%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	01%

All times in UTC

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The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (15.37nT), the direction is North (7.84nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-92nT)

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