Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 May 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 29 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Three new regions were
numbered today as Region 1073 (N13E35), 1074 (N19W57), and 1075
(S20W02). All three regions are a beta magnetic classification. No
flares were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions.
Observations from the ACE spacecraft showed solar wind speeds
averaging around 350 km/s, however there was an eight hour period of
southward Bz of -13 nT. The increase in activity is probably the
result of the CME observed on 24 May.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm
conditions for 30-31 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for 01 June as the
high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 073 Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 074/075/075 90 Day Mean 29 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 020/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 020/035-012/030-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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