Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 May 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 30 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1073 (N13E21), 1074 (N17W72), and 1075 (S20W16) have remained stable with no significant change. No flares were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream around 30/1530Z. The solar wind speed increased to an average of 500 km/s with the IMF Bz starting a southward trend averaging around -8 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with possible isolated minor storm conditions, for the next two days (31 May-01 June) due to the continued influence from the coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day three (02 June).
III. Event Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 May 073
  Predicted   31 May-02 Jun  074/073/072
  90 Day Mean        30 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 May  015/033
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 May  015/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun  015/025-010/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%25%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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