Viewing archive of Monday, 12 July 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 12 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. Region 1087 (N21E30)
produced numerous B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The
region has shown little change in spot number and areal coverage and
has a simple delta configuration in the leader spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. There is a slight chance for an isolated
M-class event from Region 1087.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
during the next three days (13-15 July) due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 080 Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 008/008-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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