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Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 February 2011

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 1158 (S20W03) produced an M6/1N flare at 13/1738Z associated with a 130 sfu Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 1119 km/s). Region 1158 grew in area and developed a complex E-type sunspot group with a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 1157 (N18W30) and Region 1159 (N19W01) both grew slightly but remain magnetically simple while Region 1160 (N16E74) decayed to spotless plage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a chance for a major x-ray event for days one thru three (14-16 February). Region 1158 continued growth and recent major flare make this region the most likely source for a major event. There is a slight chance for C-class activity from Region 1157 and Region 1159.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind data from the ACE satellite indicate a drop in solar wind velocity to approximately 310 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet on day one (14 February). Quiet to unsettled with a chance for active conditions are expected on days two and three (15-16 February), due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Feb 107
  Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        13 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Feb  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  005/005-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%25%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT
Nuuk
Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Winnipeg, MB
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-6.47nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-64nT)

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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