Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 February 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region 1158 (S19W52) decayed in area but retained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. It produced several C-class events, the largest of which was a C6 observed at 16/0146Z. Region 1161 exhibited slow growth and has an area of 140 millionths with a beta-gamma magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with M-class activity likely and a slight chance for an isolated X-class event for the next three days (18-20 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be active with a chance for isolated minor storm periods for day one (18 February). This activity is due to the effects of two CMEs; the first associated with an M6 event at 13/1735Z and the second associated with an X2 event at 15/0156Z. Quiet to active conditions are expected for day two (19 February) as the effects of these disturbances wane. The geomagnetic field is expected to return to mostly quiet conditions on day three (20 February).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Feb 111
  Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb  110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        17 Feb 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Feb  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  025/025-015/015-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%05%
Minor storm20%10%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%05%
Minor storm20%10%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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