Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 February 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1162 (N18W19) produced an M1 event at 18/2104Z and several C-class events. Regions 1158 (S19W78) and 1161 (N11W15) continued to produce C-class events during the past 24 hours. NOTE: After further analysis based on new images, the M6 event observed at 18/1011Z appears to have originated from Region 1158 rather than Region 1162.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next three days (20-22 February). All three regions are capable of producing M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours due to residual effects from the CMEs associated with the M and X-class events observed 13-15 February. The ACE spacecraft indicated a steady decline in solar wind velocities from approximately 600 km/s to 400 km/s during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (20-22 February).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
Class M75%75%75%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Feb 109
  Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb  110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        19 Feb 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  015/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Feb  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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