Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. Region 1161 (N13W69)
produced the periods only C-class event, a C1 at 23/1223Z. Both
Region 1161 and Region 1162 (N18W73) have decayed significantly and
have a simple Beta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (24-26 February). There is a chance for
an isolated C-class event from Region 1161 before it rotates off
the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet with an isolated unsettled
period at 23/1500-1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day one (24 February). Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (25-26
February).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 089 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, SodankyläKirkenes, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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