Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 March 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 1170 (S26W68) and Region 1171 (S19E69). Region 1171 is a spotless plage region which produced an M1 event at 08/0358Z with a non-earth directed CME off the east limb, and an associated Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Region 1165 (S18W92) produced an M5/1f flare at 08/1044Z. This region, along with Regions 1164 (N23W71) and 1166 (N11W01) continue to maintain their Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. The SOHO/LASCO and STEREO imagery have observed several CMEs over the past 24 hours from Regions 1164 and 1165. After further analysis from yesterday, there was an associated fast halo CME correlated with the M3 event at 07/2012Z which was determined to be earth directed. Region 1165 has an M1 event in progress at this report time which started at 08/1946Z. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux and the 90 day mean are estimated for today (08 March) due to flare enhanced readings.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be high for 09 March. Activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class events for 10-11 March.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The M3 event at 07/2012Z mentioned in Part IA produced a proton event at the greater than 10 Mev flux at geosynchronous orbit which is still in progress. Protons crossed event threshold at 08/0120Z and so far have reached a peak flux of 50 pfu at 08/0800Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with isolated periods of minor storm levels for days one and two (09-10 March). The increase in activity is expected due to the effects from the CME associated with the M3 event observed on 07/2012Z. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day three (11 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue for most of days one and two (09-10 March).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
Class M75%50%40%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton99%75%50%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Mar 155
  Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar  150/145/145
  90 Day Mean        08 Mar 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Mar  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  020/025-020/022-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm20%20%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%35%
Minor storm25%25%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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