Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 March 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Solar activity was high. Two new regions were numbered
today as Region 1170 (S26W68) and Region 1171 (S19E69). Region 1171
is a spotless plage region which produced an M1 event at 08/0358Z
with a non-earth directed CME off the east limb, and an associated
Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Region 1165 (S18W92) produced an
M5/1f flare at 08/1044Z. This region, along with Regions 1164
(N23W71) and 1166 (N11W01) continue to maintain their
Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. The SOHO/LASCO and STEREO
imagery have observed several CMEs over the past 24 hours from
Regions 1164 and 1165. After further analysis from yesterday, there
was an associated fast halo CME correlated with the M3 event at
07/2012Z which was determined to be earth directed. Region 1165 has
an M1 event in progress at this report time which started at
08/1946Z. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux and the 90 day mean are
estimated for today (08 March) due to flare enhanced readings.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be high
for 09 March. Activity is expected to be low with a chance for
M-class events for 10-11 March.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The M3 event
at 07/2012Z mentioned in Part IA produced a proton event at the
greater than 10 Mev flux at geosynchronous orbit which is still in
progress. Protons crossed event threshold at 08/0120Z and so far
have reached a peak flux of 50 pfu at 08/0800Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with isolated
periods of minor storm levels for days one and two (09-10 March).
The increase in activity is expected due to the effects from the CME
associated with the M3 event observed on 07/2012Z. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected for day three (11 March). The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue for most of
days one and two (09-10 March).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
Class M | 75% | 50% | 40% |
Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 99% | 75% | 50% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 155
Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 150/145/145
90 Day Mean 08 Mar 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 020/025-020/022-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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