Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 March 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. Region 1169 (N17W60)
produced a M1 event at 15/0022Z. This region continues to maintain
its beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 1166 (N12W91 is
making its transit around the west limb of the sun today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance of an M-class event from Region 1166 for the next two
days (16-17 March). On day three (18 March) activity is expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE
spacecraft show solar wind velocities are averaging around 400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (16-18 March).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 102 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK
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