Viewing archive of Friday, 25 March 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. Only isolated B-class
and low-level C-class events were observed during the period, all
from Region 1176 (S16E30). The region grew in area and spot count,
mostly from new development just to the NNE of the large leader
spot. Both Regions 1177 (N21E24) and 1178 (S15E55) developed
penumbra in their leader spots and were classified as bi-polar
C-type groups. Two new regions rotated on the disk during the
period; Region 1180 (N26E66) and Region 1181 (S23E69), both H-type
groups. A partial Halo CME was first observed at 24/1203Z in LASCO
C3 imagery extending through the northern hemisphere of the solar
disk. The likely source was from the M1/1f flare from Region 1176 at
24/1207Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (26 - 28 March) with a chance for M-class
activity, primarily from Region 1176.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. ACE solar wind data indicated a
gradual decrease in velocities from a high of near 500 km/s at
24/2304Z to a low of about 400 km/s at 25/1438Z. During the period,
IMF Bz was variable between +5 nT and -4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the days one and
two (26 - 27 March). By day three (28 March), quiet to unsettled
conditions, with isolated active periods, are possible due to
effects from the 24 March CME.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 113
Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 120/125/130
90 Day Mean 25 Mar 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 005/005-005/005-010/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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