Viewing archive of Monday, 28 March 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1181 (S26E31) produced a C1/Sf flare at 27/2326Z while Region 1176 (S17W11) produced a C1 X-ray event at 28/1139Z. Region 1176 decayed in area and spot count, but maintained a complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1183 (N15E54) indicated growth in area and spot count as it continued to rotate onto the disk. At 28/1405Z, a filament eruption was observed in STEREO-B EUVI 195 near N20, L=030. Associated with this eruption was a CME that lifted off the NE limb, first observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 28/1818Z. Due to the source of this CME, it is not Earth-directed. No new regions were numbered during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low all three days of the forecast period (29 - 31 March). A chance exists all three days for isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. ACE solar wind velocities remained low and steady, only varying between 340 km/s to 370 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for day one (29 March). By days two and three (30 - 31 March), quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected due to the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
Class M35%50%50%
Class X01%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Mar 119
  Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar  120/130/135
  90 Day Mean        28 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  002/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  005/005-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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