Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 June 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S22E14) produced three C-class events, the largest was a C4/1f at 01/1708Z. This region is a Csi type group with a beta magnetic classification and has decayed in both sunspot count and white light aerial coverage. Region 1227 (S19E26) has also shown signs of decay in white light areal coverage, but retains its D-type group and beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 1228 (N17E31) produced a C2/Sf at 01/0253Z. Region 1231 (N09E68) was numbered early in the period. The STEREO COR2 imagery observed a CME around 01/0609Z and another around 06/2009Z. Further analysis will be performed as LASCO imagery updates to determine if these will be Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. An increase in activity was observed on the Boulder magnetometer around 01/0800Z. This activity may have been due to the CME observed on 29 May. There were no observations available from the ACE spacecraft from 01/0028Z to 01/0771Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active levels for the next three days (02-04 June). Activity is expected due to continued coronal hole high speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
Class M10%10%10%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jun 114
  Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun  115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        01 Jun 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  010/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jun  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  007/010-008/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

All times in UTC

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