Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 June 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S22E01) produced several C-class events during the period. This region is a Dsi group with a beta magnetic classification. A further analysis of LASCO imagery correlated the C4/1f at 01/1708Z from Region 1226 to a Earth directed partial-halo CME. This event was observed by STEREO COR2 imagery at 01/2009Z. Region 1227 (S19E13) is also a D-type group with a beta magnetic classification. It produced a C3/2n at 02/0746Z with an associated Type IV radio sweep, and a Earth directed partial-halo CME. STEREO COR2 and LASCO C3 imagery observed the event with a plane-of-sky speed of 831 km/s. New Region 1232 (N10E61) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (03 June). Active conditions with isolated minor storm levels are expected for day two (04 June) as a coronal hole high-speed stream becomes geoeffective, and additional effects from recent CME activity. Day three (05 June) is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
Class M10%10%10%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jun 112
  Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun  112/110/110
  90 Day Mean        02 Jun 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jun  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  008/012-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%40%30%
Minor storm05%20%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%45%35%
Minor storm10%25%15%
Major-severe storm01%10%05%

All times in UTC

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