Viewing archive of Friday, 6 May 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1206 (N22W60)
produced a B3 x-ray event at 06/0312Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for days one through three (07-09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on days one and two (07-08 May).
Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for isolated active
periods, is expected on day three (09 May). The increase in
activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream becoming geo-effective.
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 102 Predicted 07 May-09 May 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 06 May 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 005/005-005/005-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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