Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 June 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S21W25) produced a C1 at 03/2242Z. This region remains a D-type group with a beta magnetic classification. All other numbered regions remained stable. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for a M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The ACE spacecraft detected an interplanetary shock passage at 04/1958Z. Solar winds jumped from around 325 km/s to 455 km/s, density increased, and the IMF Bt went from 5nT to 20 nT. A geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed at 04/2045Z (54 nT) on the Boulder USGS magnetometer. This signature is consistent with the arrival of a CME. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with isolated minor storm conditions, and isolated major storming at high-latitudes, for day one (05 June). The source for the activity is a combination of continued CME effects, and the arrival of a geoeffective coronal hole high-speed stream. For day two (06 June) the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions. By day three (07 June) mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected as the activity subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
Class M10%10%10%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jun 103
  Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun  102/100/098
  90 Day Mean        04 Jun 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jun  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  020/020-015/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun to 07 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%15%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%35%25%
Minor storm25%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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