Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 June 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S20W95) produced a C4/Sf flare at 09/0348Z as it neared the west limb. New Region 1234 (S16E59) produced a C1 flare at 09/1028Z. Region 1234 was classified as a Bxo group with a simple bipolar structure. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to very low through the period (10 - 12 June) with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is forecast to increase to unsettled to active levels early on day 1 (10 June) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 07 June. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during 11 - 12 June. There will be a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit on day 1 due to the expected CME arrival.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton50%25%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jun 088
  Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun  088/088/088
  90 Day Mean        09 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun  009/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jun  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  018/025-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%10%
Minor storm25%10%01%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%20%
Minor storm30%20%05%
Major-severe storm20%10%01%

All times in UTC

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