Viewing archive of Friday, 13 May 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been very low during the past 24
hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for days one through three (14-16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (14 May). Days two and
three (15-16 May) are expected to be quiet to unsettled with a
chance for isolated active periods. The increase in activity is
forecast due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming
geo-effective.
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 092 Predicted 14 May-16 May 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 13 May 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 003/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 005/008-012/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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