Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 May 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Three new regions emerged in the last 24 hours, Region 1213 (S21W80), Region 1214 (S20E17), and Region 1215 (S23W30). All are small and magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low. A slight chance for a C-class flare exists for the next three days (15-17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for an active period, and a slight chance for a minor storm period late on day 1 (15 May). The increase in activity is forecast due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective. Unsettled conditions are expected to persist for days 2 and 3 (16-17 May) with a slight chance for isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 May 091
  Predicted   15 May-17 May  092/092/090
  90 Day Mean        14 May 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 May  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  012/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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