Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 July 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1243 (N15W46) produced a B2 flare at 05/2156Z. An approximately 23 degree long filament centered near N25W60 was first observed lifting toward the NW at approximately 06/1052Z. An associated CME was observed at 06/1048Z directed toward the NW on SOHO LASCO imagery. SOHO LASCO C2 showed an estimated plane of sky speed of about 573 km/s. The CME did not appear to be Earth-directed. Region 1243 continued to show an increase in spots and area and was classified as a Dai group with a Beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare for the next three days (07-09 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period between 06/0600-0900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels, late on day one (07 July) and day two (08 July). The increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream and a possible CME passage from the partial-halo CME observed on LASCO C3 at 03/0142. Predominantly quiet levels are expected on day three (09 July).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Jul 085
  Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul  084/082/084
  90 Day Mean        06 Jul 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  008/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Jul  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  008/008-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%15%
Minor storm05%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%40%20%
Minor storm10%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/12/08X2.2
Last M-flare2024/12/22M1.1
Last geomagnetic storm2024/12/17Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
November 2024152.5 -13.9
December 2024103.3 -49.2
Last 30 days114 -43.9

This day in history*

Solar flares
12015M6.75
21998M3.34
32013M2.36
42013M1.97
52001M1.69
DstG
12002-67
22000-62G2
31989-60
42014-57
51982-53G1
*since 1994

Social networks