Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 July 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Several
low-level B-class flares occurred during the period from Regions
1242 (N18, L=056) and 1243 (N16W34). Region 1243 showed an increase
in spots and area and was classified as a Cso-beta group. Region
1244 (N15W67) showed a decrease in spots and area and was classified
as a Dso group with a Beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions
were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare for the next three
days (06-08 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Minor storm
levels were observed between 05/0300-0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (06 July). Quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active levels, are expected late on
day two (07 July) and day three (08 July). The increase in activity
is due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream and a possible
CME passage from the partial-halo CME observed on LASCO C3 at
03/0142Z.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 085 Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 084/083/080 90 Day Mean 05 Jul 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 007/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 005/005-008/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul to 08 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Umeå
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