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Viewing archive of Monday, 1 August 2011

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Aug 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region 1261 (N18W08) produced the largest event of the period a C4/1F flare at 01/0732Z. Region 1261 has continued to develop in area and magnetic complexity and is classified as an Fkc type spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Region 1263 (N127E21) has maintained its Beta-Gamma-Delta classification and produced three low level C-class events. Region 1260 (N18W36) and Region 1265 (N17W67) remained stable and quiet, while Region 1264 (S23W07) has decayed to spotless plage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a slight chance for a major event for the next three days (02-04 August). Region 1261 is the most likely source for a major x-ray event and has a slight chance to produce an energetic proton event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind data observed at the ACE satellite indicated that the coronal hole high speed stream has subsided with wind speeds decreasing from 700 km/s to about 550 km/s during the past 24 hours. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at 1305Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled on day one (02 August) as the effects of the coronal hole high speed stream continues to wane. Days two and three (03-04 August) are expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
Class M60%60%50%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Aug 125
  Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug  130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        01 Aug 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Aug  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-50nT)
A transequatorial coronal hole was detected in an earth-facing position on Monday, 24 March 2025

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Coronal hole faces Earth

The anticipated strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch never materialized as the coronal mass ejection that was supposed to arrive early yesterday didn't arrive until today just past midnight UTC. The impact was very lackluster with the Bt (total strength of the IMF) increasing to a moderate 15nT at best and the solar wind speed reaching just 420km/s. A far cry from the anticipated 700 to 800km/s. That once again goes to show how hard it is to forecast space weather events and any resulting geomagnetic conditions. We remain under the influence of the CME and high latitude sky watchers should remain alert for some nice aurora displays but middle latitude sky watchers will probably have to wait for the next opportunity. 

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