Viewing archive of Sunday, 31 July 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region 1261 (N16E05) produced a C3/SN at 31/0254Z. This region has grown in area and magnetic complexity, and classified as a Beta-Gamma-Delta type spot group. Region 1260 (N19W22) and Region 1263 (N18E34) remained relatively unchanged.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominately low, with a chance for an M-class x-ray event from Region 1260 and Region 1261 for the next three days (August 01-03).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. Data observed at the ACE spacecraft indicated the continuation of a coronal hole high speed stream, with wind velocities reaching 690 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods on day one (August 01) due to the effects from the coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (02-03 August) as the effects of the coronal hole high speed stream wane.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
Class M45%45%45%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jul 119
  Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug  120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        31 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  010/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jul  009/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  012/012-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%05%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%20%05%
Minor storm20%10%01%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

All times in UTC

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