Viewing archive of Monday, 13 June 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. A C1 x-ray event was observed at 13/0055Z from an area of enhanced brightening on the east limb near N20. Region 1234 (S16E07) remained the only spotted region on the disk. The region produced a few B-class events, the largest a B9 x-ray event at 13/0616Z. Region 1234 indicated little change over the past 24 hours and remained a simple B-type, bi-polar group. A partial halo CME was observed lifting off the SE limb, first observed in C2 SOHO LASCO imagery at 13/0424Z, and later in C3 imagery at 13/0454Z. The plane-of-sky velocity was estimated at near 600 km/s. The CME appeared to originate from a bright area of plage centered near old Region 1223 (S17, L=125), first viewed in STEREO-B EUVI imagery at 13/0355Z as an area of northward surging.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (14 - 16 June) with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar wind data indicated the continued presence of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) with wind speeds averaging about 450 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained enhanced with a maximum flux reading of 4.8 pfu at 13/1010Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (14 June) with a chance for active levels due to continued CH HSS effects. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on days two and three (15 - 16 June) as the CH HSS subsides. The greater than 10 MeV protons are expected to remain enhanced through 14 June, returning to background levels by 15 June.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton10%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jun 087
  Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun  089/091/093
  90 Day Mean        13 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  005/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jun  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%05%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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