Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 June 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be initially quiet on day one (1 July), becoming
unsettled late in the day. Days 2 and 3 (2 - 3 July) are expected
to remain unsettled. The increase in activity is forecast due to a
favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 089 Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 087/087/087 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 007/008-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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