Viewing archive of Friday, 8 July 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. New Region 1247 (S18E11) emerged early in period and has produced four C-class events, the largest being a C3/1N at 1331Z. Region 1247 continued to grow throughout the period and remains the most active region on the visible disk. Two other regions were numbered today, Region 1246 (N14W47) and Region 1248 (N20E53), but both have remained quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next three days (09-11 July), as Region 1247 continues to grow and evolve.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, have remained at background levels, ranging from 330 km/s - 380 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for active conditions on day one (09 July), as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) moves into a geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (10 July), as the effects of the CH HSS continue. A return to quiet levels is expected on day three (11 July).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jul 086
  Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul  088/088/088
  90 Day Mean        08 Jul 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jul  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  010/010-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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