Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 July 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region 1260 (N20E45) produced the only C-class event of the period, a C1 flare at 26/0339Z. Region 1260 has grown significantly and is classified as a Dao type spot group. New Region 1261 (N16E74) was numbered today. This region is still rotating onto the visible disk and initial observations indicated a Dho type spot group. Both regions were magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (27-29 July). Both Regions 1260 and 1261 are likely to produce C-class activity, with the remote possibility of an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (27 July). Days two and three (28-29 July) are expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. The increase in activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jul 094
  Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul  095/097/099
  90 Day Mean        26 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jul  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  005/005-010/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%25%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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