Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 September 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Sep 22 2225 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Activity was high. New Region 1302 (N11E74) produced a long-duration X1/2n flare at 22/1101Z. The X1 flare was associated with Types II and IV radio sweeps, a 970 sfu Tenflare, and a full halo CME. The CME, already in progress in SOHO LASCO images at 22/1330Z, had an estimated speed of around 1392 km/s. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be high, with a slight chance for another X-class flare from Region 1302.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on days one and two (23-24 September). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels at high latitudes, are expected on day three (25 September), due to a weak coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Sep 151
  Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep  155/160/165
  90 Day Mean        22 Sep 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Sep  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Umeå
The density of the solar wind is moderate (22.81 p/cm3)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (12.5nT), the direction is North (5.93nT).

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