Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 17 0005 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::::
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 1319 (N11W13) produced
the most activity during the period, including a C6 x-ray event at
16/1514Z as well as numerous other low level C-class events. Region
1317 (S26E01) produced a slow rise C1/Sf flare at 16/1355Z with
associated type II and type IV radio sweeps shortly after. The
estimated Type II speed was 618 km/s. No partial or full halo
signature indicating an Earth directed CME has been observed by SOHO
LASCO, nor was a feature ascertainable on STEREO coronagraph imagery
at the time of this report. Please note that there was an error on
the location of Region 1321 on the Solar Region Summary issued at 0030Z
on 16 October. The actual location of Region 1321 was S14E50.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class flare over the next 3 days (17-19
October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled
period from 16/03-06Z due to weak CH HSS effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (17-19 October) as
weak CH HSS effects continue to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 151
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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