Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 October 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single low-level C-class
x-ray flare occurred. No significant changes were observed in Region
1319 (N11W39), which remained an Eki/beta-gamma. Region 1321
(S14E09), a Cao/beta, showed gradual spot growth during the period.
Region 1324 (N10E63) rotated more fully into view as a 12-spot
Eai/beta group. No new regions were numbered. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (19 - 21 October) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Regions 1319 or 1324.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet through the period.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 147 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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