Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 November 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. A long duration M1 flare was observed at 09/1335Z. Associated with this event were a Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 750 km/s and a eruptive filament channel with a possible Earth directed CME. This filament channel was located between Region 1342 (N17E22) and Region 1343 (N27E37) in the Northeast quadrant of the visible disk. Imagery is still coming in at the time of this report, but STEREO B and SDO/AIA imagery do indicate a CME liftoff. Region 1339 (N21W19) has some simpliciation in its magnetic structure but still remains classified as a beta-gamma. New Region 1345 (S24W01) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels for the next three days (10-12 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (10 November). An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 2 (11 November) as the effects of a CME, from 08 November, are forecast. An increase to unsettled to active conditions on day 3 (12 November) is expected, as the CME, associated with todays M1 flare, is expected to become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
Class M70%70%70%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Nov 180
  Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov  180/180/175
  90 Day Mean        09 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  005/005-010/010-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%25%30%
Minor storm01%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%20%35%
Minor storm01%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/12/08X2.2
Last M-flare2024/12/22M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm2024/12/17Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
November 2024152.5 -13.9
December 2024103.3 -49.2
Last 30 days115.4 -40.8

This day in history*

Solar flares
11999M7.71
22013M4.82
32023M3.33
42013M2.8
51999M2.61
DstG
11982-101G3
22014-71G1
32001-59
41987-59
51989-58G1
*since 1994

Social networks