Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 October 2011
Solar activity report
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 138 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Iqaluit, NUNuuk
Reykjavik
Kiruna
Latest news
Coronal hole faces Earth
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
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Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
The anticipated strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch never materialized as the coronal mass ejection that was supposed to arrive early yesterday didn't arrive until today just past midnight UTC. The impact was very lackluster with the Bt (total strength of the IMF) increasing to a moderate 15nT at best and the solar wind speed reaching just 420km/s. A far cry from the anticipated 700 to 800km/s. That once again goes to show how hard it is to forecast space weather events and any resulting geomagnetic conditions. We remain under the influence of the CME and high latitude sky watchers should remain alert for some nice aurora displays but middle latitude sky watchers will probably have to wait for the next opportunity.
13:55 UTC - Coronal hole
A transequatorial coronal hole is facing Earth. Enhanced solar wind could arrive in ~3 days
02:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) Threshold Reached: 02:33 UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2025/03/21 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/22 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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