Viewing archive of Friday, 16 September 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Sep 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Frequent C-class flares
were observed during the period. The largest was a C9/Sf at 16/1136Z
from Region 1290 (S13W69). Region 1299 (S21E10) was numbered as a
Cro-beta group with 8 spots today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class flares during the period (17-19
September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor
storm levels at high latitudes, on day one (17 September), due to
the effects of the full halo CME observed at 14/0000Z. Activity is
expected to decrease to quiet to active levels on day two (18
September). Predominantly quiet levels are expected on day three (19
September).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 143 Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 142/140/140 90 Day Mean 16 Sep 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 018/020-010/015-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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