Viewing archive of Monday, 5 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest event of the period was a C4 x-ray flare at
05/1518Z from Region 1363 (S21W09). Region 1363 continues to grow in
size and areal coverage but has lost some of its magnetic
complexity (beta-gamma). Three coronal mass ejections were observed
during the period but none appear to have an Earth directed
component.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class flares for the next three days
(06-08 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next three days
(06-08 December).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 158 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 160/160/155 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 004/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| Minor storm | 09% | 09% | 09% |
| Major-severe storm | 03% | 03% | 03% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
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