Viewing archive of Friday, 6 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest event of the period was a C2 flare at 06/1125Z
from Region 1392 (N19W32). A new emerging flux region was numbered
today as Region 1394 (N18E42).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next
three days (07-09 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind characteristics, as measured by the ACE
spacecraft, indicate the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS) with solar wind speeds increasing from around 330 - 450
km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days (07-08
January) as the effects the CH HSS wane. A return to mostly quiet
levels is expected on day three (09 January).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 136 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 009/010-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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